Wednesday, 30 December 2015

HD – Oysters Extraordinaire

Oysters Extraordinaire, photo by Tommy Thompson. Looking for a festive seafood appetizer for the holiday celebrations? Check out Tommy Thompson’s Sportsman’s Kitchen column in the December issue of Florida Sportsman.

Sportsman HD Gallery

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Where is Miami in the real estate cycle on the eve of 2016?

Skyline+Speakers

Miami skyline (Credit: Wyn Van Devanter), from left: Carlos Melo, Ugo Colombo, Gil Dezer, David Polinsky and Jack McCabe

Despite high confidence among prominent Miami developers that the real estate market is not due for a significant downturn in 2016, some experts are cautioning that sales will continue to dip, which could possibly ignite a mild recession by the end of the year.

“We are going to see prices continue to appreciate through the first half of year, but at a much slower pace,” said Jack McCabe, founder and CEO of McCabe Research and Consulting. “In the last half of the year, we will see prices flatten, increases in inventory and slowing demand from buyers.”

Acknowledging condo sales are moving slower, CMC Group CEO Ugo Colombo told The Real Deal he believes it’s a sign of a healthy real estate market. “It is leveling off at a sustainable rate,” Colombo said. “You cannot expect to keep selling 100 units a month. Right now, there is a healthy balance of supply and demand.”

Since mid-2014, the influx of foreign buyers that fueled an unprecedented condo boom after the 2008 recession has tapered off due to foreign currencies losing value against the rising U.S. dollar. Yet Colombo said the South Florida condo market has become so diversified that it can weather economic trouble in countries from which developers cull buyers.

“We are seeing more Europeans, as well as Middle Eastern and Asian buyers who were not here before,” Colombo said. He added his company’s Brickell Flatiron project is experiencing steady sales activity among buyers from Colombia, Mexico, the Caribbean and domestic markets like New York.

Carlos Melo, a principal of the Melo Group, which has developed apartment and condo projects in Edgewater and the Arts & Entertainment District, said he sees a consolidation in the real estate market in the upcoming year.

“I don’t think there are going to be many new projects getting off the ground if they haven’t already,” Melo said. “We are still absorbing the product that is coming online. We are not getting ahead of ourselves in the real estate industry.”

Gil Dezer, whose company Dezer Development is building Porsche Design Tower and Residences by Armani/Casa in Sunny Isles Beach, told TRD some of the slowdown can be attributed to a more cautious real estate industry.

“All our projects in Sunny Isles Beach have been staggered six to eight months from each other,” Dezer said. “There are not a ton of closings taking place in one day and we are not putting a ton of units out there at one time.”

Dezer said 2016 could see more buyers of condos that have been recently finished or near completion starting to put up their properties for resale as prices for newer pre-construction units become more expensive. “I think resales are going to do very well,” Dezer said.

However, recent statistics indicate the South Florida condo market is beginning to overextend itself. According to a December market report by the Association of Miami Realtors, there were 14,770 existing condo transactions through November, down from 17,142 during the same period in 2013 and 16,409 from January to November 2014.

As sales have slowed, the number of condo buildings under construction or in the planning stages continues to skyrocket. The Realtor’s association report notes 38 towers totaling 3,639 units have been completed east of I-95 in Miami-Dade County since 2011. Another 74 towers with a combined 10,148 units are under construction. An additional 65 towers with a total of 9,131 units have been announced, but have not begun development.

A third-quarter condo market report prepared by Integra Realty Resources for Miami’s Downtown Development Authority noted the downtown Miami residential development was “firmly in the middle of its market cycle.” The report also stated that the beginning of 2016 will mark the largest increase in supply in nearly a decade with more than 3,000 units of rental and condominium inventory.

Furthermore, condo sales are significantly dependent on all cash buyers, who predominantly hail from foreign countries. According to the Realtor’s association, 67.5 percent of condo closings were made in cash in the month of November, which is more than double the average of 24 percent in the rest of the United States.

The combination of primarily relying on all cash buyers, an oversupply of condos, and a slowdown in sales is a recipe for another recession, McCabe told TRD.

“I think there are a lot of people putting blinders on and burying their heads in the sand that there is not going to be a downturn beginning in the next two years,” McCabe said. “They better wake up and start paying attention to the economic indicators. We will see another recession. It won’t be as severe as the last one, but it will have a negative effect on real estate down here.”

David Polinsky, a principal in Fortis Design Build, a firm developing mixed-use projects in Wynwood, said 2016 will serve as a test for luxury condo developers who have not reached the buyer reservation threshold needed to begin construction on their projects. “There will be some thinning out,” Polinsky said. “We don’t expect to see a lot of new condo projects announced this year.”

The glut of luxury condos will benefit mixed-use infill projects away from the waterfront. “Now that there is critical mass in neighborhoods like MiMo, Brickell, downtown Miami, and Wynwood, these areas need better retail components and more rental,” Polinsky said. “Those projects will continue to get activated and get underwritten. It’s a sign the market is maturing.”

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The Devil in Your Fuel

Run your boat often, run your boat smart.

Water and debris in bottom half of filter means a visit to the shop is in order.

If it’s been three months or longer since you last ran your boat, consider having the fuel system serviced. If you’re buying a used boat which has sat idle for an indeterminate time, definitely get her in the shop before firing her up.

I was reminded of this while watching Wayne Watson remove the cowling on a pristine, garage-kept bass boat at Governors Creek Marine in Green Cove Springs. “Guy brought it in here and said it hasn’t been cranked in over two years,” said Watson. “Take a look at what comes out of the fuel filter.” He emptied the decomposed gasoline from the spin-on water-separating fuel filter. Sludge and debris littered the bottom of a plastic container.

Performing such analysis at home, you might see water, heavier than gas, sink to the bottom of the container. Shake it (careful not to spill), and if you see bubbles in there, resembling vinegar and oil dressing, that’s water. If you see what looks like coffee grounds or dirt floating in there, you need to consult a qualified mechanic. Cap and dispose of your sample at the hazardous waste drop station at your local landfill. Avoid any source of flame or sparks when you assess fuel or fuel system elements.

Water condensation in the fuel tank is another worry, particularly with the alcohol content in ethanol fuels. Alcohol absorbs water, setting off a cascade of problems. If you have a choice, look for ethanol-free gasoline (drive out of the way, if you have to), and never settle for greater than 10 percent ethanol (E10). Otherwise, consult a mechanic to ensure your fuel system components are ethanol-compatible; that should include the installation of a 10-micron fuel filter, as well as assessment of your fuel tank—which may need to be drained and cleaned to remove water and deposits.


One type of product which breaks down water in fuel and reduces phase separation associated with ethanol.

Fuel Stabilizers

Fuel stabilizers seldom cross the minds of most Floridians, but products like STA-BIL, STAR TRON or the engine manufacturer’s specified additive are a big help if you know the boat will sit for more than a month. Of course, the easiest thing to do is simply run the boat on a regular basis. “My boat hasn’t been in the ocean since last year,” said mechanic Wayne Watson, “but it gets run every month. I start with the flusher on it and let it run 15 to 20 minutes so that it gets to that full operating temperature.”

The goal is to prevent the vapor separation tank, or VST, from emptying as a result of evaporation. As gas evaporates, it leaves varnish in the VST. The fuel pump, exposed to oxygen, may rust. Either process may introduce damaging elements into your engine when you crank it. Result: Clogged injectors, possibly a blown powerhead.

Steer Clear of Trouble

Cable steering bugaboos represent another trouble spot for part-time boaters.

With inadequate maintenance and infrequent use, corrosion may cause the cable to “freeze up.” Hear the bang of metal on metal at the boat ramp? Safe to assume it’s a boater attempting to loosen the steering ram. Sometimes it works, often it doesn’t.

There are several grease fittings on most steering systems and about once a month they should get a fresh shot with a grease gun. Also shoot some grease on your finger and apply it to the metal ram—the bar where the cable attaches to the engine. With routine application of grease, you should be able to turn a small outboard back and forth with ease.

Even with regular service, cable bends are problem areas. This is where most of the friction occurs. Stiff steering on an otherwise well-maintained boat may be a symptom of trouble. Consult your mechanic, soon. When a steering cable breaks while the boat is on plane, the boat turns abruptly. If you happen to be standing up when it happens, you probably get thrown out of the boat. This is the main reason why they install kill switches on outboard boats.

On my own boat, I recently upgraded to hydraulic steering. There’s virtually no maintenance and much less susceptibility to corrosion. However, the cost is more than double that of the best cable system. Mine was about $1,000 with a new wheel. But about the only thing that can go wrong here is a fluid leak, and when that happens, you will know it by the slick on the water, or the sheen in your bilge. The other advantage to hydraulics is that the boat is much easier to steer, and there is virtually no feedback from engine torque. You can let go of the wheel and the boat will hold course.

–Vance McCullough

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